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Estimated Civil Tender Values: December 2023

After a 33 percent y-y increase in 2023Q3, estimated tender values fell 6 percent in Q4 compared to the same quarter in 2022, bringing the overall increase for 2023 to 29 percent y-y (or an increase of R25bn) to R108bn.  Provinces that outperformed in Q4 include Mpumalanga, where tender values increased by R1.2bn to R4bn, North West Province with a R1bn increase, and Free State up R734m to R2.2bn, with a marginal R531m increase in KZN to R6.7bn.  Western Cape recorded the steepest decline, down R1.8bn (or 34 percent y-y) to R3.6bn for the quarter.  The value of road projects out to tender continued to increase into the 4th quarter, rising by 88 percent y-y, or R8.8bn, to R13.6bn for Q4.  Overall the estimated value of road projects out to tender has increased by 57 percent y-y to R52bn for 2023. Water related projects didn't show any meaningful increase during 2023, up just 6 percent y-y to just over R30bn.

The annual rate of change, based on a 12-month moving average, in constant 2021 prices, slowed to an increase of 24 percent y-y by December 2023, from an increase of 45 percent y-y for the 12 months up to July 2023.

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